We often have to make complex decisions in uncertain times. There are frameworks that can be applied to navigate these situations, but not many are well trained in them.
One approach that I like is called Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty and its complementary goal is Robust Decision Making. There is a open-access book dedicated to the topic, and a whole research community dedicated to DMDU.
Picture: Levels of Uncertainty, from "Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty, From Theory to Practice", Book Open Access © 2019, Springer Nature Link:
It is generally applied for complex policy decisions, but it can be quite useful at a personal level too. I have adapted it and packaged it as a specialized AI coach that you can use.
I have prepared a ChatGPT coach that can help you guide in using DMDU and RDM, and I have successfully used it in a couple of important decisions lately.
ChatGPT can make mistakes–and, it does make mistakes (such as mis-counting the downpayment when I was evaluating a buy house vs. continue to rent decision)–so double-checking results is important!
In the rest of this article, I’ll explain what it does and provide a template to follow this process on your own.
Whenever you need to walk through a structured process to make sound and robust decisions, whether they are small (day-to-day) or large (life-changing), this approach help you adapt the level of detail to the magnitude or complexity of the decision.
What is DMDU?
A step-by-step decision framework under conditions of deep uncertainty (i.e., where outcomes, probabilities, and/or consequences are not fully known).
Intended to help you choose robust, flexible, and strategic paths in personal matters.
Designed to be referenced repeatedly and adapted as you gain new information or life circumstances change.
When to Use It?
For important life decisions (career moves, big financial commitments, relocation, significant personal relationships).
For medium-term planning (learning or developing new skills, health and wellness goals, financial planning).
Even for day-to-day choices (habit changes, productivity strategies) whenever you feel uncertainty or a need for a structured approach.
Key Principles of DMDU
Robustness Over Optimality. Rather than seeking a perfect single best outcome (which might rely on uncertain assumptions), aim for solutions or actions that are reasonably good (i.e., “robust”) across a variety of potential futures.
Iterative, Adaptive Planning. Accept that uncertainty is inevitable and plans need to be re-evaluated as new information arises. Build in review points or “trigger points” where you step back, assess outcomes, and adapt your course of action.
Scenario Exploration. Look beyond a single “most likely” future; consider diverse possibilities (scenarios). Acknowledge uncertainties in your environment (economic shifts, personal constraints, health changes, technology disruptions, etc.).
Flexible Strategies. Combine near-term, no-regret actions (easy first steps that help no matter what) with flexible options that leave you room to pivot if conditions change.
Decision Levels in a DMDU Context
Level A: Large, Life-Defining Decisions
Examples: Changing careers, moving to a new country, getting married or starting a family, investing in significant assets (house, business).
Approach: Use the full DMDU process with all steps, scenario generation, robust options analysis, and adaptive roadmapping.
Level B: Medium-Horizon Decisions
Examples: Changing your skill set or career focus, planning a financial goal (e.g., saving for a trip, down payment, or education), deciding on a health regimen.
Approach: Use a streamlined DMDU approach — fewer scenarios, but still identify key uncertainties, potential pivots, and robust strategies.
Level C: Routine / Day-to-Day Decisions
Examples: Setting up habits, choosing a diet plan, deciding how to manage weekly schedules or small financial decisions.
Approach: Quickly identify uncertainties or constraints, keep decisions flexible if possible, and monitor outcomes so you can adjust.
Step by Step
Define the Decision Context
Clarify the Goal: What are you trying to achieve, solve, or improve?
Identify Constraints: Time, resources, personal values, family considerations, financial limits, etc.
Identify and Characterize Uncertainties
List Key Unknowns: Future events or conditions you cannot predict precisely — e.g., market fluctuations, personal health changes, job market shifts, technology changes.
Rank Importance: Which uncertainties have the biggest potential impact on your decision? Which are more likely or more severe if they happen?
Create Scenarios or Futures
Imagine Different Futures: At least 2–4 plausible “states of the world” or personal circumstances.
Consider Extremes: Best-case, worst-case, and at least one “unexpected change” scenario (e.g., you lose a job offer, a major health event, or a new opportunity arises).
Name Each Scenario: Give them short descriptive titles (e.g., “Booming Career Growth,” “Budget Crunch,” “Sudden Opportunity Abroad,” “Health Constraint,” etc.).
Develop Potential Strategies
No-Regret Moves: Identify actions that are beneficial or relatively low cost under most scenarios (e.g., building an emergency fund, networking, developing flexible skills).
Contingent Options: Actions you only take if a certain scenario or trigger occurs (e.g., if you receive a job offer in another country).
Adaptive Steps: Outline how you might shift from one path to another as new information becomes available.
Stress-Test Your Strategies Against Each Scenario
Apply Each Strategy to Each Scenario: Ask: “How would I fare if scenario X came true?”
Identify Weak Spots: Where does your strategy break down or become too costly? Can you adjust your plan to reduce vulnerability?
Compare Strategy Trade-offs: Consider both short-term and long-term consequences in every scenario.
Select the Most Robust Strategy (or Portfolio of Strategies)
Robustness Criteria:
Viability Across Scenarios: Does the strategy remain valid (not perfect, but acceptable) for most or all futures?
Flexibility: Is it easy to pivot or adapt if a scenario changes?
Personal Values and Goals: Align with your core values, aspirations, and responsibilities.
Resource Feasibility: Is the strategy within your means (time, money, energy)?
Implementation Plan and Triggers
Plan the Next Steps: Outline the sequence of actions, how you’ll allocate time/resources, and what success looks like at each milestone.
Define Triggers: Specific events or observations that would prompt you to re-evaluate or pivot. For example, “I’ll re-check my plan if my monthly budget hits below X,” or “I’ll pivot if my new side business generates X revenue or if it fails to generate Y by a certain date.”
Monitor, Learn, and Adapt
Periodic Review: Schedule check-ins (monthly, quarterly, or annually depending on the decision scale).
Track Indicators: Monitor the signs that scenarios are unfolding differently than expected.
Refine Strategies: Update your plan as new information or resources emerge.
Here is simple template (a Google Docs is here) that you can apply. I use this as a template in my own note filing system:
Decision Context
Goal:
Constraints:
Key Uncertainties
Scenarios
Scenario A:
Scenario B:
Scenario C:
Potential Strategies
No-Regret Moves:
Contingent Options:
Adaptive Steps:
Stress-Test Strategies
Scenario A:
Scenario B:
Scenario C:
Best Robust Strategy (or Combination) & Rationale
- Describe why it is robust and acceptable across scenarios.
Implementation & Triggers
Immediate Action Plan:
Trigger Points:
Timeline:
Monitoring & Adaptation
